Monday 25 March 2024

The Depths of Despair: Holden in the Depression

It cannot be overstated just how devastating the Great Depression was for Australia. By some metrics, we had it worse than any other country on Earth – a big call when Weimar Germany is also a contender, but I think the point can be made. For one thing, for the last half-a-century Australia had been a virtual workers' paradise¹, with high wages, strong unions and conditions (like the eight-hour workday) that were the stuff of dreams in other countries: We'd simply achieved a greater height from which to fall. For another, here the hardships started earlier, with the trouble beginning not in 1929, but in 1925...

The corner of Hay and Sussex Streets, Sydney, c. 1930. The Hotel Burlington building is seemingly still there, but next to it now is a gold statue marking the entry to Chinatown. (Source: englishhimki Livejournal).

Living Beyond Our Means
Australia had no "Roaring Twenties" of the kind seen in the U.S., but that doesn't mean there was no post-war splurge. Once the Great War ground to its bloody, uncertain conclusion (accompanied by the Spanish Flu, which brought mass death of a kind even the war hadn't managed), the Australian government came out with big plans for rebuilding. One such plan was the Soldier Settlement Act of 1916, which saw some 23,000 demobilised soldiers (British as well as Australian) brought out and settled on small farms, usually of around 1,000 to 1,500 acres (There are a lot of these around my home district, with one of them named Passchendaele. I don't think that requires further explanation). That's 23,000 soldiers together with their families, by the way, so it probably tops 100,000 people total – quite a migration, all told.

At the same time, both Federal and State governments were investing heavily in public infrastructure projects. Two such projects, just to give you the flavour of the era, were under the management of one J.J.C. Bradfield, an engineer at the NSW Department of Public Works. His first big project was the electrification of Sydney's rail network, which ran its first electric trains in 1926, with spurs running as far as Cronulla, Bankstown and Lithgow (gotta bring the city its coal). The heart of the city was linked to the North Shore via another colossal piece of infrastructure, this one a landmark even today and the reason Bradfield's name sounded familiar: the Sydney Harbour Bridge.

When we did Bridgeclimb in 2001, the guide asked us to imagine how it must've dominated the skyline in 1932. To an extent, it still does today. (Source: Daily Telegraph).

Projects like this were far from cheap, however, and the only way mere State governments could afford them was lots and lots of borrowing, mostly from London. This went double as tax revenues began to fall in the latter half of the decade, as the economic turbulence of the 1920s began in earnest.

See, the Great War had been a hugely expensive exercise for Mother England, not just in lives but in capital as well. I wish I could remember where I first heard it so I could cite it properly, but one source pointed that out that the fuse on a fragmentation shell was a high-tech item in 1914, one that took a highly-skilled lathe operator to make. From that perspective, the fortune expended on something like the week-long barrage that opened the Battle of the Somme can scarcely be imagined. Small wonder Britain ended the war owing staggering debts to the United States, and with scant hope of calling in her own debts from the other Entente powers, all of whom were either equally shattered by the war (France) or no longer even existed (the Russian Empire).

No attribution on this one, I consider it part of the redistribution of wealth.

The strain on the economy left Britain trying to balance inflation against labour relations for the first half of the 1920s, but the critical moment came in 1925. Chancellor of the Exchequer that year was none other than Winston Churchill², the most 19th Century of a cohort of very 19th Century men, and he thought the best way to return the British banking system to its former preeminence was to return the pound to the gold standard, at the level it had been in 1913 – in effect, turning a £1 note into a voucher for 8 grammes of gold.

The problem was, the pound had been trading substantially below that since the end of the war, so Churchill had just arbitrarily made the British pound more expensive. That in turn made British goods artificially expensive, correspondingly reducing demand in the rest of the world. Why pay extra for a British doodad, said the world, when you could buy an American doodad that was just as good at market rate? The result was a collapse in British exports, which in turn collapsed their demand for raw materials from Australia – there was no reason to import Australian wool if the looms in Norfolk and Yorkshire were standing idle.

An array of roughly-contemporary Australian coins. Being slightly more recent, the florin, sixpence and shilling feature the face of George VI rather than V. I'm still bracing myself for the first Australian dollar to feature Charles' ugly mug. (Own work).

Even worse, Australia couldn't really export to anyone else, either. Since 1910 we'd had our own currency – the Australian pound – but it had been pegged to the British pound at a ratio of 1:1. At the time that probably made sense, minimising the disruption of the changeover, but now it meant the Australian pound was just as overpriced as the British, hurting our exports. High grain prices during the war had encouraged farmers all over the world (but especially in the U.S.) to invest in machinery to expand production and meet demand. With the war over, however, and millions of soldiers returning to the plough, the world suddenly had grain to spare and prices collapsed. Wheat and wool remained in freefall through 1927 and '28, and to cover the shortfall in tax, the government had to fall back on even more borrowing. Australia was the largest single borrower from the City of London during the 1920s, but as commodity prices fell, the loans from London started drying up. The unemployment rate hovered between 6 and 11 percent for the rest of the decade – mild compared to what was coming, but profoundly shocking for a country that had enjoyed near-zero unemployment for the last few decades.

About All Those Resettled Soldiers...
A quick digression: Nothing provable, just me reading between the lines. I think there was a fair bit of *sniff* ideology going on with the Soldier Resettlement Act. In this era, anyone who was capital-e Educated was, by default, a Classics nerd, someone who knew their Thucydides, Virgil and Plutarch. I think the reason they were so bewitched by the idea of smallholding citizen-farmers is because that's what Rome had in the Republic's heyday. Like America's Founding Fathers a century and a half earlier, there was probably a strong, unspoken, but very genuine belief not just in the economic, but in the moral benefits of basing a society upon these people. I think if you cracked open the skull of a policy-maker circa 1928, you'd find they truly believed Rome rose to greatness on the moral gumption of good, honest, salt-of-the-earth soldier-farmers, and it was the loss of these people and the Marian switch to a professional army that led to the "decadence", decay and decline of Rome. That said, Resettlement was probably a major help in re-integrating our veterans back into society, and you only have to look at what was happening in Italy around this time to realise they got that much right, even if accidentally.

That said, the reality of the programme is that it took several million acres of arable land and placed it in the hands of people who didn't necessarily know anything about farming, especially in a harsh country where the principles of growing can be quite different. The page linked above mentions that out of 5,000 soldiers settled in WA, only 3,500 were still on the land by 1929 – the rest going bust and selling up even before the Great Depression. Some of that was the impossibility of making any money now the price of grain had crashed, but some of it was poor soil management bringing salt to the surface and making a Carthage of the land they'd been given.

Settled soldiers' cottage in Kentucky, NSW (Source: Wikipedia)

As for all that infrastructure investment, well, these were the final glory days of post-millennial optimism. You don't need a theology degree to get the gist of it: This was the same urge that led American progressives to ban slavery, but then overreach themselves by banning alcohol as well, leading to the evils of Prohibition. Basically, those living in the late 19th Century had seen science advance at breakneck pace, bringing steam trains and electricity (electricity must've seemed like actual witchcraft when it was new), antiseptic surgery that might not kill the patient and, yes, even the motor car. They were reading the signs and imagining where things might go in the future, and now they'd just suffered through the greatest war (and plague!) in human history, a Great Tribulation such was not since the beginning of the world, no, nor ever shall be. So was it such a stretch to believe maybe the Earthly Paradise started here, and we should get to work already? If so, that only made what happened next even more scarring.

The Crash of '29
The traditional starting gun for the Great Depression is September 1929. On the 20th of that month, famed British investor Clarence Hatry was gaoled for fraud along with several of his colleagues, leading to the suspension of his companies and the crash of the London Stock Exchange. Since London was the centre of world banking, investors in the U.S. got the jitters and the Dow began to tumble. October saw the first and sharpest declines, including the notorious Black Monday and Black Tuesday plummets, when the Dow lost nearly a quarter of its value in just 48 hours. A consortium of wealthy industrialists and bankers tried to stem the bleeding by putting together a quick slush fund and buying blue chip shares at well above market price: The crash paused for barely a day, then swallowed the slush fund whole as share prices continuing to collapse. By the time the market bottomed out it was July 1932, and from a peak of 381.2, the Dow had dropped to just 41.2 – almost ninety percent of its value had been wiped out. With it had gone the life savings of millions, including even the most battle-hardened denizens of Wall Street, as ever-more-cynical traders had stepped in to "buy the dip" and got caught up in the ensuing ruin.

A common feature of all [previous crashes] was that having happened they were over. The worst was reasonably recognizable as such. The singular feature of the great crash of 1929 was that the worst continued to worsen. What looked one day like the end proved on the next day to have been only the beginning. Nothing could have been more ingeniously designed to maximize the suffering, and also to insure that as few people as possible escape the common misfortune. The fortunate speculator who had funds to answer the first margin call presently got another and equally urgent one, and if he met that there would still be another. In the end all the money he had was extracted from him and lost. The man with the smart money, who was safely out of the market when the first crash came, naturally went back in to pick up bargains. The bargains then suffered a ruinous fall. Even the man who waited for volume of trading to return to normal and saw Wall Street become as placid as a produce market, and who then bought common stocks would see their value drop to a third or a fourth of the purchase price in the next 24 months. The Coolidge bull market was a remarkable phenomenon. The ruthlessness of its liquidation was, in its own way, equally remarkable. – John Kenneth Galbraith, The Great Crash 1929

A fascinating graph comparing the Crash of '29 with the 1973 Oil Crisis, the NASDAQ Crash of 2000 and what was then the ongoing Credit Crunch of 2008. If I have any Gen Z readers, feel free to file this one under, "How Millennials Got Like That".

The effects here in Australia were no gentler, even if we were, on paper at least, in a better position overall. Our share market bubble wasn't quite as inflated, one source told me – which is true – but then they cheerfully add, "We had no banking crisis", which is an odd thing to say when we'd simply outsourced our banking crisis. The hardships of the late 1920s had already brought down the Nationalist government and returned Labor to power – in a masterpiece of poor timing, just days before the start of the crash – leaving Australia in serious danger of defaulting on all those massive loans. In August 1930, the Prime Minister invited Sir Otto Niemeyer of the Bank of England out to Australia to advise on economic policy, a fact that left me muttering, "Oh no..." as I read it. I'd just finished listening to Behind The Bastards' three-part episode on the Irish Potato Blight³, so I knew exactly what the advice would be: Australia should pay back all debts in full, and if a lot of people died in the meantime, what of it?

So it was that Australia embarked upon the Great Depression in debt up to the ears and with absolutely no money available to help the enomous crowds of people who were now losing their jobs. At its worst, the unemployment rate reached 20 percent (among unionised workers, it got as high as 32 percent), and unlike the U.S., there was no FDR riding in on a white horse to offer us a New Deal: The only welfare was the so-called Sustenance Payment (inevitably, the "Susso"), which was only available if you were long-term unemployed, and only if you had no other assets, and even then was a pittance. The Susso varied from state to state (in South Australia it took the form of a voucher system), but in Queensland it was a cash payment, from which we can get some hard numbers. By 1932, the average weekly wage was £2 11s 8d, or roughly $302 in 2023: The Susso handed out between 3s to 4s/6d per child – by the same inflation factor, between $17 and $26 per week. Just imagine trying to feed yourself for $26 a week, never mind replacing worn-out clothes (or even just washing them), or supporting a family as well: There was no way in Heaven, Hell or other dimensions you were going to afford any kind of rent, which is why so many ended up living in shanty towns on the outskirts of town.

The notorious "Happy Valley" at Brighton-le-Sands, Sydney, 1934. (Source: Wikipedia).


One of my grandmothers was 10 when the Depression came, and although she never really spoke about it, the few anecdotes she did leave us with paint a bleak picture. They were living in Newtown, Sydney, where her father had once been a cabinet-maker, but was now out of work with a stroke. Her mother, who'd worked as a scullery maid back in Britain, now had a job laundering lab coats for the doctors of RPA – a job that required labouring in brutal heat, so she usually came home with sweat rashes. She was paid per coat starched, which too often made only enough to feed her husband and three children, not herself: "I'm not hungry tonight, dear," was the usual excuse.

The laundry at Northampton General Hospital, Cliftonville, U.K., c. 1930. Since most of our equipment was British-sourced in this period, RPA was probably very similar (Source: Northampton General website).

Meanwhile, the job forced her to leave three little girls at home with a man now prone to rages: My grandmother told how she and her sister would hide in the cupboard, desperately trying to hold the door closed so he couldn't get at them. And, she never failed to remind us, you had either jam or dripping on your bread, never both.

No wonder people turned to Phar Lap and the Don.

And the Share Price Kept Falling...
Holden's Motor Body Builders Ltd. suffered through their own share of the collective misery – indeed, they could hardly avoid it. The Woodville plant, whose steel presses had stamped out 36,000 car bodies in 1928, was down to just 1,651 by 1931. Edward Holden searched frantically for ways to keep his factory open, even if it wasn't making motor cars, and found refuge of sorts in the food industry – always one of the last industries to enter a recession. Production lines that had so recently seen thousands of Chevrolets marching to completion were now reduced to the manufacture of fruit crates instead. Other diversifications included making steel golf club heads⁴ and filing cabinets, but even so the red ink remained and the share price dropped alarmingly low. There were layoffs and labour unrest: Holden's was pushed to the brink.

Paddy's Fruit and Vegetable Markets, Quay Street Haymarket, Sydney, c. 1930. Statistically, somewhere in this photo is a Holden's made fruit crate riding in a Holden's-made Chevrolet or Bedford (Source: City of Sydney Archives)

As fate would have it however, while Holden's was struggling with not enough money, their partners at General Motors Australia had the opposite problem. Tough government restrictions to keep money from leaving the country meant there'd been no way to repatriate their profits back to New York, leaving them with a Scrooge McDuck-style money bin and nothing to spend it on. The solution was obvious, even if it did make the Australians nervous – memories of GM's less-than-chummy 1925 takeover of Vauxhall were still fresh.

But Holden's and their 1,500-odd shareholders could hardly afford to be picky. Edward Holden flew to the U.S. to negotiate the acquisition of Holden's by General Motors Australia Ltd, submitting to a deal whereby GM's head office would hand over £1,111,600 for the company, including £550,000 in cash for Holden's £1 preference shares and the issue of 561,000 preference shares in exchange for Holden's ordinary shares. It was a bargain when the company's assets, which included Woodville, further assembly plants in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth, and various service depots, were together valued at more than £1.4 million ($135 million in 2023), but such was life sometimes. Thus was born, in March 1931, the firm of General Motors-Holden's Ltd, or GM-H, and the company that would one day proclaim itself "Australia's Own" became a wholly-owned American subsidiary years before Arnott's, Tooheys and Speedos made it cool. And, it must be said, years before they'd ever manufactured a complete car...

¹ As long as you were white, anyway. Recent digging into Australian movies has brought The Chant of Jimmie Blacksmith to my attention, the inspiration for which was the tragic true story of Jimmy Governor, which happened all around me as I write this. Post-invasion Australia was no paradise for its traditional owners, that's for sure.

² As an aside, I've heard the Chancellor of the Exchequer is the only member of the British parliament allowed to drink on the job, and only while delivering the budget. You just know Churchill abused the hell out of that.

³ Don't call it a Potato Famine. There was a potato blight, to be sure, but the famine was the result of deliberate consciously-chosen British government policy.

⁴ Of course golf survived just fine...

Friday 8 March 2024

Before Holdens, Holden's: The 19th Century Roots of GM-H

Even in the 1950s cars in Australia were still transport for the rich – everyone else used their 'awse or walked! – Harry Firth, Australian Muscle Car: Ford and I

One of my favourite podcasts is Well There's Your Problem, a podcast about engineering disasters, which also has slides¹. My favourite era to hear about is Gilded Age America, roughly spanning from the end of the Civil War to the start of the Great Depression, an era of laissez-faire capitalism, grifters in straw hats, DC electrical grids and urban freight rail. It fascinates me because it's an era that we in Australia pretty much missed out on: For Australians, the 19th Century lasted until 1945. In the course of researching this blog – in which I just wanted to provide the context in which the early Holden company was trying to do business – I think I found out why.


The Man, The Myth, The Legend?
James Alexander Holden was born in 1835 in Walsall, in what was then Staffordshire, just to north of Birmingham. His father, a leathergoods purveyor and sometime Member of Parliament, died when James was only 16, leaving him with £130 of inheritance² and a stepmother he hated, prompting him to explore his options overseas. He tried his luck in Canada and New York before returning to the U.K. where, in 1854, aged just 19, he decided to follow his cousin Edwin Smith to what was then called the Province of South Australia – a colony that was barely older than James himself, having only been established in 1834. He arrived safely in the city of Adelaide (built on land stolen from the Kaurna nation) after a pleasant 102-day voyage.

James comes across as an ambitious, press-ever-onward type, full of big ideas but with a low threshold for boredom – I get the feeling if he were around today he'd probably be a crypto bro. Upon arriving in South Australia he bounced through a succession of white-collar jobs (basically out of boredom), but this kind of job-hopping was actually a very good idea at the time. Half the working-age population of Adelaide had just decamped to the gold fields of Ballarat, so in this sort of environment, someone willing to work and blessed with plenty of self-esteem could build up a nest-egg fairly quickly. And indeed, by 1856 a 21-year-old James had embarked on his first business venture as J.A. Holden & Co., selling saddles, whips and harnesses of both local and British make.

The business did well, and by the following year James had married his landlord's daughter, one Mary Phillips, and together they bought a house and started a family. Initially J.A. Holden & Co operated out of a small warehouse at the corner of King William Street and Rundle Mall, but in September 1859 they moved to a larger premises at 34 King William Street, a collection of 1840s buildings divided into small shops, known as Beehive Corner after the iconic tailor's shop.

Beehive Corner in 1866. The whole complex was demolished and replaced with the current gothic revival building in 1895. (Source: State Library of South Australia)

By 1864, J.A. Holden had 21 employees and more space was needed, so he rented another shopfront at 106 Gawler Place, a narrow single-lane thoroughfare through the centre of Adelaide. The price was £350 per annum³, paid quarterly, which he could afford thanks to winning a contract to supply carts and other equipment for the 165 horses and 210 bullocks of the Overland Telegraph Line. This ambitious project meant stringing 3,200km of copper wire (and building a chain of repeater stations) clear across the Red Centre, from Adelaide to Darwin, but once it was finished it was only a matter of months until Darwin linked up with Java via submarine cable, reducing communication delay with Europe from months to hours. Australia was no longer isolated, and with the proceeds of such a major project, J.A. Holden & Co were able to purchase the site outright in 1873, for the covenanted price of £3,850⁴.

Gawler Place during Holden's tenure. (Source: State Library of South Australia).

By 1871 they'd outgrown their home base yet again, and expanded around the corner to 59 Rundle Street. Gawler Place remained the wholesale business, while Rundle Street became Holden & Birks, a subsidiary retail business operated in partnership with one Alfred James Birks, formerly of the Bank of South Australia. Sadly, this arrangement lasted only until 1874 when Birks unexpectedly died, aged just 33.

Holden & Birks in Rundle Street. (Source: Wikipedia)

For what it's worth, James' personal residences had followed a similar pattern. As newlyweds, James and Mary had started with a four-room cottage adjacent to Clayton Congregational Church in Beulah Park. To that they'd added a larger home in Magill, but then only a year later they sold both properties to buy a fifteen-acre estate at Kensington Park, where in 1871 the original cottage was replaced by a proper seven-room residence (which was expanded even further in 1875).

Finally, in May 1879, the company upgraded to its ultimate home, a bespoke two-storey office and retail building located at 100 Grenfell Street.

Source: Wikipedia

But the good times were already coming to an end. For one thing, the economy had started to cool – the best of the Victorian gold rush was over, meaning immigration had slowed, and drought was squeezing the crops on which everyone depended. Banks were failing, and even the surviving ones were forced to start calling in loans, including on some of Holden's customers – and, no doubt, on Holden himself. If you thought his meteoric rise and splurging on property sounded like a man living on too much credit, very good, I too have read financial stories since 2008. As the business situation deteriorated he sought solace in the bottle⁵, and started looking for bail outs.

H.J. Holden.
In 1879, for example, he took his 21-year-old son Henry James Holden (second of his and Mary's ten children, but the first to survive to adulthood) and made him a partner, accordingly changing the company name to J.A. Holden & Son. October 1880 then saw James subdivide and sell off some of the estate at Kensington Park, raising £2,368 12s⁶. By 1884, however, they were under enough financial stress to need another partner, which they found in one Heinrich Friedrich Adolphe Frost, though he came to prefer Adolph. Originally from Hamburg but more recently of Port Wakefield and Yorketown, where he'd been a respected businessman in his own right (and even served as mayor), it was a risk for Frost to buy into such a troubled concern, but one he considered worth taking. The synergy of merging his carriage-building and trimming business with one of the best leathergoods producers in the colony was simply too good to ignore.

Even so, James' situation remained desperate and he proved not to be above making shady decisions. As a senior member of the community he'd been made both a Magistrate and a Justice of the Peace, with the latter office sometimes requiring him to rule on bankruptcy cases. One such case was that of John Wake Fox, one of whose creditors happened to be... J.A. Holden & Son! Despite the obvious conflict of interest, James was given the case, which had the obvious outcome: The Insolvency court was less than impressed when they found James had seen his own £42 debt paid out in full, leaving just 5 shillings in the pound for Fox's other creditors!

He was fortunate in fact that none of the other creditors had the money to pursue the case, but either way James was now a very sick man and incapable of further damage. In September 1885, a virtually-bankrupt James sold his share of the retail business to his son Henry and partner Frost, and went into voluntary liquidation in March 1886. A meeting of his creditors had revealed debts totalling £31,195, albeit with assets totalling £39,454⁷ – he was in the black, but only if he amortised all debts now, before accruing any more interest. He was forced to sell off everything, including the estate at Kensington Park, a slew of other properties, a stock of fifty buggies and various other pieces of machinery and bits 'n' bobs. The dream was over, and he subsequently died in Semaphore Hospital in June 1887, aged just 52, of tuberculosis and complications arising from alcohol abuse.

So what are we to make of James Alexander Holden? It seems a more ignominious end than he probably deserved, but inevitable given the way he'd lived his life. He'd pursued with reckless abandon what would become, a century later, the Peter Brock philosophy: "Bite off more than you can chew, then chew like buggery." But he proved ahead of his time in a basic yet very important way: He believed in the value of Australian manufacturing. He was a founding member of the Adelaide Chamber of Manufacturers, a body aimed at doing for local production what the Chamber of Commerce had done for merchants, and at its grand opening he'd said:

We have artisans equal to any kind but they labour under the disadvantage of having the result of their labours condemned before trial as being 'colonial rubbish'.

Holden & Frost
But the true measure of a man is what survives after his death. J.A. Holden & Son might have been wound up, but the retail business – the one that had started as Holden & Birks – lived on in the hands of Henry James Holden and Adolph Frost, trading as the partnership of Holden & Frost Ltd.

Tough economic headwinds remained throughout the 1880s, but the company scraped by from their sole remaining address at 100 Grenfell Street. What turned their situation around was the outbreak of the Boer War in 1899, which was kind of the Ukraine War of its day. It was motivated by naked British greed (South Africa was rich in gold and diamonds), and it made Britain very unpopular internationally, especially once the effects on Boer civilians became widely known. Nevertheless, for Holden & Frost it was a godsend, as the South Australian government awarded them a contract to fit out the new units of mounted infantry being raised for the war effort. An opening contingent of 10,000 soldiers had been promised to the mother country, and the units being raised had names like the 1st South Australian Mounted Rifles, so the demand for saddles, bridles, Sam Browne belts and alike was acute. Holden & Frost landed an immediate contract for 10 percent of the total.

Men of the 2nd South Australian Mounted Rifles c. 1900. Third from the left is Trooper Harry Morant, aka. "The Breaker" (Source: Australian War Memorial)

It was a golden opportunity, and Holden & Frost jumped on it, setting up a separate workshop with additional staff to complete the job in the shortest time possible. Their 1,000 sets of equipment were ready and delivered long before those of Sydney or Melbourne-based contractors, which of course led to an order for a further 1,000. By 1901, Holden & Frost was the largest supplier of harness to a new entity, the Commonwealth Military Forces, precursor to the Australian Defence Force. Over the course of the war, the colonies had federated to become the new Commonwealth of Australia: A province no longer, South Australia was now officially a state of the world's newest country. That meant demand for Holden & Frost's products remained relatively high, as the new Federal Government had decided the only way to defend such a huge, sparsely-populated continent was with the kind of mounted infantry that had proved so effective in South Africa. The company thus survived the Federation Drought in better shape than it otherwise might have done.

But of course, we were now into the 1900s, and the times were once again changing. In 1888, a mechanical engineer from Mannheim named Karl Benz had registered the paperwork for what he called the Benz Patent Motorwagen – the motor car – and so changed the world forever. One who had an interest in these new contraptions was Edward Wheewall Holden, son of Henry and grandson of James, who'd graduated from Adelaide University with a degree in Science and Engineering and joined the company in 1905. In 1909 Adolph Frost died and the Holdens bought his share, taking full control of the company, and giving Edward the headroom to pursue his interests.

In this era, when the motor car was basically a toy for One Percenters, there were all sorts of draconian laws in place to suppress the "maniacal" urges of this fringe hobby. Horse owners were forever complaining that these noisy, smelly contraptions frightened their steeds, and speed limits were set so low it wasn't unusual for a "speeding" motor car to be overtaken and booked by a policeman on a bicycle. Nevertheless, Edward slowly convinced his father these machines just might have a future, and when Henry sailed overseas in 1908 to see for himself how the motor industry was developing, Edward set up a tiny workshop at the rear of the Grenfell Street premises to begin working on motor cars. 

At this stage, the process when buying a car was to import a chassis and engine from the U.K., U.S. or Europe, and then have a custom body coachbuilt upon it. The customer would spend considerable time discussing various choices of wood, fabric and other pieces of trim with the coachbuilder to ensure they got exactly the vehicle they wanted. It was a long and expensive process, taking up to three months to complete a single car, but one at which Holden & Frost excelled. By 1914, they'd built their first original body on the chassis of an imported Lancia⁸.

Staff outside Holden & Frost saddlery in Grenfell Street, 1914. (Source: The Townsville Bulletin).

The outbreak of the Great War in 1914 saw another windfall, as demand for military tack once again went through the roof, but the war also stimulated interest in motor cars. Danger to shipping forced the Nationalist government under Billy Hughes to introduce the Luxuries Restrictions bill of 1917, which restricted the import of non-critical items like perfumes, furs, eggs, beer and ale... and bodies for motor vehicles. The intention was to save space aboard ships for wartime supplies, which a motor car most definitely wasn't, but there was concern what would happen to this fledgling industry if their bread and butter was cut off completely. As a compromise, no limit was placed on the number of automotive chassis that could be imported into Australia, leaving Holden & Frost in prime position to manufacture the bodies to clothe them.

At this time the most popular model of car in Australia was easily the Ford Model T, with other brands like Dodge Brothers (which would be bought up by Chrysler in 1928) following well behind. In Adelaide the principal Dodge Brothers dealer was the Cheney Motor Company: A phone call from company head S.A. "Bert" Cheney to Edward Holden resulted in a meeting, also attended by Henry, where Cheney proposed that the Holdens establish a dedicated plant to manufacture bodies exclusively for Dodge Brothers chassis. The volumes Cheney was talking about were breathtaking, but the numbers finally turned Henry around, and the morning after the government brought in the Luxuries bill, Henry Holden went to the Bank of Adelaide and secured a £50,000⁹ loan to finance the new factory.

The Holdens had made a massive commitment to an industry they had hitherto only dabbled in, but it proved a wise move. In a meeting with the NSW distributors, Dalgety & Company, the Holdens and Cheney were able to ask just £57 10s¹⁰ for a body – far less than a comparable Ford – so when they mentioned production numbers like 5,000 a year, they seemed quite achievable. When the company was divided again in the aftermath of the Great War, the leathergoods side carried on as Holden & Frost, located in Grenfell Street. The coachbuilding side, which had now eclipsed it, became Holden's Motor Body Builders Ltd, operating out of a sizeable new factory at 400 King William Street, Adelaide.

King William Street, c. 1920 (Source: State Library of South Australia)

By the end of 1917, two open-top tourers had been produced, and the following year 99 bodies were built. The trappings of heavy industry began to appear, such as modern metal-stamping machines, and kilns for drying the wood used in construction, so for 1920 output rose to 317 bodies. The factory in King William Street had to be doubled in size to cope with the increasing demand, resulting in 876 bodies produced in 1922. It was now clear a single factory wasn't going to be enough, so Edward's younger brother William Holden was dispatched on a scouting mission to find a suitable location to build another. Given so much of their output went to the eastern states by ship, a site close to Port Adelaide was desirable, especially one with good rail links. William's gaze fell upon a sleepy hollow almost halfway between Adelaide and the Port, bounded on two sides by railway lines and adjoining the Woodville railway station. This was of course the storied Woodville Plant, and once it opened in 1923, production skyrocketed to 12,771 units, seven thousand of which were produced in the first half of the year alone.

Motor bodies under construction at Woodville. (Source: Facebook page "Help save South Australia's history from demolition.")
 

General Motors Comes Calling
Success got Holden's noticed, and in 1923 the American giant General Motors came knocking. Founded by William C. Durant in 1908, GM had been conceived not as a car manufacturer but as a holding company which would acquire other companies. Durant’s first takeover just happened to be the Olds Motor Works, founded by Ransom Olds and makers of the Oldsmobile (1908), which set the trend – Durant soon acquired David Buick’s Buick Motor Company (also 1908); the Cadillac Motor Company (1909); the Chevrolet Motor Car Company founded by Swiss brothers Louis and Gaston (1911); and soon, Alexander Wilson’s Vauxhall Motors in Britain (1925); Adam Opel’s Opel AG in Weimar Germany (1929); various other small operators like Champion Ignition; and, ironically, very nearly the Ford Motor Company itself. Henry Ford’s demands were just a little too steep for Durant, something he must have regretted later...

So by 1923 GM was on track to become the world’s largest car maker, and was looking to expand its business worldwide, including in Australia. By serendipity, Edward Holden had gone overseas to open negotiations with the GM brass in New York just as one J.D. Mooney made the opposite journey, landing on our shores with the same mission. Mooney was president of General Motors Export Corporation, and with Woodville now up and running, Holden's was all too willing to strike a deal: GM was offering a long-term contract with the kind of volumes that would make even Dodge Brothers blanch. Very quickly, Holden's had signed on the dotted line to become the sole assembler of GM products in Australia, on a cost-plus basis.

1926 Chevrolet Superior V with Holden's body, photographed on the Dobbyn railway bridge, Cloncurry, Qld. (Source: QldPics)

Mooney's plan for the Australian market centred around the Chevrolet, a modestly-priced car felt to have great potential here. Unfortunately, earlier Chevrolet models had been poorly-built and gained a local reputation for unreliability. All the same, GM pushed forward with this plan and secured dealers in each state, including the same Bert Cheney who'd been so instrumental in Holden's move into full-scale production in the first place. Cheney sold his Adelaide dealership (which became Waymouth Motors) and moved to Melbourne instead, setting up showrooms along Little Colllins Street.

As Woodville came online, Holden's output totals reached numbers that would have seemed fantastical only a decade earlier: 22,150 bodies left their factories in 1924, almost double their total for 1923, and they broke their own record again the following year, with 32,292. 1925 was also the year they finally divested themselves of Holden & Frost, now a rather boutique business which had long since become vestigial: The whole thing was sold to the retail merchants Harris Scarfe Ltd.

In 1926, Henry James Holden died, aged 67. In stark contrast to his infamous father, his funeral was attended by hundreds of mourners, including high-society business associates and politicians. This time there was little doubt the business would carry on, however, as Edward inherited his father's role as company head and William became Managing Director.

That same year, General Motors Export Corporation decided to establish a direct presence in Australia and constituted General Motors Australia Ltd, with a head office at City Road, South Melbourne. New assembly plants were opened in Melbourne (City Road), Sydney (Marrickville), Brisbane (Fortitude Valley), Adelaide (Birkenhead) and Perth (Cottesloe Beach, now Mosman Park), where Holden's bodies were mated to General Motors chassis.

GM City Road c. 1936 (Source: State Library of South Australia).

By 1928 the industry's total production had reached 100,552, of which Holden's accounted for 36,171. It was at this point that the famous "Lion and Stone" emblem was designed by Australian sculptor George Rayner Hoff, best known for his unsparing and evocative war memorials. Calling back to a prehistoric legend that witnessing a lion rolling a stone had inspired humanity's invention of the wheel, the badge was subsequently fitted to all Holden bodies and, although undergoing minor changes over the years, remained to the very end.

The partnership between General Motors and Holden's was off to a promising start, but going any further they would have to pass together through the crucible of the worst economic crash of all time. Though nobody at the time knew it, the Great Depression was just around the corner.

¹ I really appreciate how hard Rocz works to avoid implying it's the disasters that have slides.

² Just over £15,000 in GBP in 2023.

³ Just shy of $48,000.

⁴ $528,000.

⁵ His arrival in Australia had coincided almost exactly with the all-time peak of alcohol consumption in this country, around 20 litres per capita, with most of that comprised of spirits, i.e. rum.

⁶ Nearly $462,000.

⁷ Debts of nearly $4.9 million, with assets worth $6.2 million.

⁸ Or a Hotchkiss in 1916. There is a lot of conflicting information about when and what the "first Holden" really was.

⁹ Nearly $5.5 million.

¹⁰ Just over $6,300.

Monday 26 February 2024

Whither Touring Cars?

I once had a friend tell me, "I wish I could flog up your kind of enthusiasm for touring cars. They're just taxis after all." I know the spanner-twirlers who frequent motoring blogs usually aren't that introspective, but as I tiptoe back to updating semi-regularly, I wanted to take a moment to have a few deep rocks of the chair and outline, if it's not too pretentious to say, the philosophy of touring car racing.

What is it? Why is it? How did it come about? And why do we (okay, I) like it so much? 

Slow Down, Plato...
We'll start with the obvious. The person who made the "taxis" jibe above is a dear friend of mine, but they suffer from one of the worst cases of Engineering Brain I've ever encountered – Jeremy Clarkson's "silicon c-c-carbide" joke is uncomfortably close to the truth. And that's cool, it's a big world and it takes all kinds to fill it, up to and including engineers (though I maintain the trouble starts when engineers start setting their own destinations rather than working toward goals set by others, but that's another rant). So I think I get their objection: Why spoil all that lovely racecar engineering by applying it to a lumpen, slow, clumsy shitbox designed purely to get your shopping home? "They're just taxis," they say, as if that comprises an argument in and of itself. To which I reply, "Yes, exactly. They're taxis."

For years, these Aussie cars were our rides to school, drives to work, tradie rigs and repmobiles. Most importantly they were our taxis – the first cars our overseas guests experienced when they disembarked the Flying Kangaroo. Taxis weren’t usually the hero examples; vinyl seats and column-shifts persisted well after they ceased to be commonplace in private cars. And with many hundreds of thousands of kilometres under them before retirement, they might have gained a few rattles and squeaks. But they were our cars.

Case in point, no image of London would be complete without an austere congregation of black cabs. Historically, Austin, Beardmore and Metrocab have all supplied ‘Hackney Carriages’ conforming to Transport of London’s Conditions of Fitness. Seven inches of ground clearance and a 25-foot turning circle are required to ensure they can circumnavigate, quite specifically, the Savoy Hotel’s entrance roundabout.

Source.

Across the Atlantic the Checker Marathon spent 40 years sitting salient outside every airport, hotel and whorehouse from Kansas to Kalamazoo. The last of these beautiful behemoths retired in New York in July 1999, replaced en masse by a range of full-chassis domestic sedans, the most prominent and enduring of which was the Ford Crown Victoria. With the next generation of US cabs focussing on fuel economy and flexible cargo arrangements, the Crown Vic, a traditional sedan in every sense, is disappearing from US taxi ranks faster than the Checker did.

Source.

Yet the vision of a Checker Marathon or Ford Crown Vic taxi is burned deep into the Betamax of every American movie and TV show made since 1960. Likewise, the silhouette of these cars is imprinted on the brains of almost every Westerner on the planet. Only an educated few would bat an eyelid if a Marathon, lumbering and large, appeared at the rank outside Delta’s JFK Terminal Two. – Dave Carey, Fairwell to the Commodore Name, Unique Cars

Point is, these cars are embedded in the culture like few others. For half a century, when you got off the plane at Kingsford Smith, your first point of contact with Australia was the vast, cosy rear seat of a humble Ford Falcon. Having spent a year or two on duty, that Falcon was then traded in to become some P-plater's first car, generating another slew of memories. The metaphor might have broken down in the age of Uber, but I think the point still stands: Only such humble machinery can be such a deeply-embedded part of our lives, so when it's tarted up and hurled around a racetrack, there's an emotional heft there that simply can't be matched. 

That will either work for you or it won't: Take your pick. Carey's article ends claiming the problem with the ZB Commodore is that it was never a taxi. The same is true of the Camaro that's replaced it on the Supercars grid, but then I'd also argue that Supercars has ceased to be a touring car series and become a GT series, so the rules are a bit different. Now I'm not saying Supercars is circling the drain – having been there in 2019, I can report there's nothing much wrong with the trackside product – but I am prepared to say it's now a zombie technology. Like the phone book, it just happens that the financial plumbing is still connected and making things happen, even after the purpose it once fulfilled is now gone. 

But what purpose was that, exactly?

Themes Are For Eighth-Grade Book Essays
I think the "taxi" principle hints at something deeper, that motor racing is unique among sports in being tied hand and foot to an industry. No matter how corrupt it gets, I doubt the outcome of the World Cup is ever going to be affected by the latest cutting-edge developments at Big Ball¹, but motor racing absolutely has seen the results of major contests skewed by the boffins at this or that company's skunkworks. Racing sits at the intersection of sport, business and cutting-edge technology, which means a lot more forces affecting the outcome.


The relative strength of these forces depends on which series you're watching. For a WEC Hypercar race, the Technology leg is arguably the dominant one. In NASCAR, on the other hand, tech development was amputated early in favour of sporting purity and commercial interests. And today, of course, commercial interests rule the roost pretty much everywhere. If you asked any random Supercars exec what motor racing is for, I bet they'd say, "To make money", a play on the old joke from Harvard Business School ("What does your company make?" "Money"). It's a fair enough answer from them, personally, because they have mortgages riding on it and I don't want to begrudge them that: If they're making a living from their passion, more power to 'em. But it's still kind of a hollow answer out here in the fandom, especially in a world where Boeing is proving, definitively, that there's more to business than making money.

Just to illustrate that last point, I want to mention an extraordinary statistic I learned recently about Japan's Shinkansen bullet trains. The reason they can accelerate from zero to 270km/h and back to zero again before the next station is that these trains are a) absurdly overpowered, and b) built absurdly light, to the point that they're actually not much good in the event of a crash. So, what do you think happened last time they crashed one?

They've never crashed one. There have been mishaps of course, but in the entire 55-year history of the programme, no Shinkansen train has ever killed or injured one of its passengers. The Japanese accepted that they were going to have to build their trains this way, and then engineered them to make it work (no level crossings, for example, meaning no chance of ever meeting a car). My point is, it's amazing what can be achieved when you regard a company as something other than a way of generating executive salary packages.

So again, what is racing for? Why is it important? If someone raises that old chestnut, "They're just going around in circles!" what do you tell them? Pure commercial interest might provide the plumbing to make a series happen, but that in itself won't get audiences to care. To do that, I think a series needs what might loosely be called a purpose, a deeper meaning. So what, if any, is the deeper meaning of motor racing?

Me, I think it's at its best when trying to answer a specific question. Exactly what that question is, again, depends on the series. At Le Mans, it's brutally simple: "How far can a car go in 24 hours?" In Formula 1, it's a more nebulous, "How fast can a car go?" (And in the case of the drivers, "Who is the greatest in the world today?"). At Indianapolis, traditionally, it was, "Who will take home the richest prize in racing?" and that worked really well in the Gilded Age U.S., but less so now. The U.S. is supposed to be the home of the American Dream, the idea that if you are talented and hard-working, then one day you will be rich. Indianapolis used to be a place you could go to see that happen in real time – it would've been an unusual confluence of events, sure, but it was theoretically possible to see a some hopeful arrive penniless, get a lucky break in a good car and then drive heroically to take the win, ending the month of May a literal millionaire. The breakdown in that mythology, and whether that breakdown owes more to the betrayal of the American Dream, or to the fact that your modern racing driver is raised from childhood and so is rather walled off from the rest of the population, is a topic I won't dig into here.

A Penske smothered in greenbacks is an image you'd just never see in Formula 1, a series an order of magnitude wealthier than CART, even in its heyday. It doesn't happen often, but there are times I do love the Americans (source).

For traditional touring cars, especially Bathurst, the question is implied by its roots in ordinary production car racing: "Which car should I buy?" And because of that, we end up in a unique position where the Technology aspect is filtered through commercial interests. To put it another way: Because of its role as a tentpole for the Holden brand, the Holden Racing Team could not race any product except a Commodore. It didn't matter that the Commodore wasn't actually a very suitable machine for the regulations at the time, the paymasters sold Commodores, so that was what they had to race. In some kinds of racing, the tension between those two facts would simply see a new commercial deal, which is boring. In touring cars, it instead kicks off a desperate, years-long narrative of engineering and rule-bending to try to file off enough corners to fit this square peg into its round hole. See also: the saga of Gibson Motorsport as Nissan works team, ranging from surprisingly competitive (1986-'87), to the Dark Night of the R31 ('88-'90), to crushing domination and ultimate category-killer of Godzilla ('91-'92).

There's always a relevant XKCD (source).

And that, dear reader, as near as I can make, is where the appeal of touring cars lies: It's an oxymoron. Literally. The term dates from the early days of the sport, when there were racing cars (what we'd today call open-wheelers), and touring cars, meaning cars meant for taking on actual journeys. "Touring car racing" is therefore an oxymoron, and that tension is what drove the action for half a century. It's the challenge of precision driving with an imprecise instrument, with the pot constantly being stirred by new homologation updates or even whole new cars that may (or may not) have had racing in mind when they were designed. Business is always sticking its nose in, and while business may be infuriating, or dumb as rocks, or really really funny (you only need to listen to Trashfuture to know business can be funny), it's always a hint about what's cool in society right now, and who has the money. 

It's a gift to the pop historian, is what I'm saying. It's trying to hit a moving target with a gun that won't shoot straight, and while that may not be everyone's cup of tea, I think I prefer it over the dull, deterministic grind of technical development a la Formula 1 and WEC. Disagree? Great, it's your life and you should love what you love, you owe me nothing and I know that. But if my spiel here has given you a new perspective, a way to enjoy a kind of racing you maybe didn't before, then that's mission accomplished as far as I'm concerned.

Addendum
As a final note, I will confirm that yes, this blog will be getting updates again after a year off. I never intended this to be a Group A blog specifically, it just happened to work out that way because I'm a natural born contrarian, and the Group A era was the one that attracted all the hate. I stopped because it had become a bit of a treadmill, and the incoming V8 era interested me a lot less. So going forward I'll be adding stuff as I think of it, less because I want to please you, the reader, and more because it's an excuse to tidy up all the raw material I already have and make it readable. And because, to be brutally honest, writing is a necessary process for maintaining mental health, in a year where I badly need to get my head together. So expect to see updates, on the same shameless  "whenever I feel like it" schedule as before, but covering a broader timespan. Who knows? Maybe it will even be good, stranger things have happened...

¹Oh grow up.

Monday 29 January 2024

The Pandemic! Pt.3: Omni-Cron

This is the third of a three-part retrospective on the Covid-19 pandemic. I wasn't expecting it to stretch to three parts, but apparently I had a lot to say. It was written specifically for my nephew, who was very young at the time, but it's open to anyone else who might be interested. All views expressed below are my own and are not to be treated as medical advice or any other kind of advice, really: I maintain that I am fully qualified to hold an opinion, as long as I remember that it is, indeed, just an opinion. Enjoy.

Covid-19 was a real disease with real consequences. 

(Source).

I'm jumping back on this soapbox because, again, there are some among us who deny that it was a big deal, or that it was even a reality at all. I invite those people to peruse this sobering little vignette, which appeared on Lawyers, Guns & Money, early in the pandemic. It quoted a firsthand account to the New York Times of what it was like to actually catch covid:

The second day I was sick, I woke up to what felt like hot tar buried deep in my chest. I could not get a deep breath unless I was on all fours. I’m healthy. I’m a runner. I’m 33 years old.

In the emergency room an hour later, I sat on a hospital bed, alone and terrified, my finger hooked to a pulse-oxygen machine. To my right lay a man who could barely speak but coughed constantly. To my left was an older man who said that he had been sick for a month and had a pacemaker. He kept apologizing to the doctors for making so much trouble, and thanking them for taking such good care of him. I can't stop thinking about him even now.

Finally, Dr. Audrey Tan walked toward me, her kind eyes meeting mine from behind a mask, goggles and a face shield. "Any asthma?" she asked. "Do you smoke? Any pre-existing conditions?" "No, no, none," I replied. Dr. Tan smiled, then shook her head, almost imperceptibly. "I wish I could do something for you," she said.

I am one of the lucky ones. I never needed a ventilator. I survived. But 27 days later, I still have lingering pneumonia. I use two inhalers, twice a day. I can’t walk more than a few blocks without stopping.

I want [people] to understand that this virus is making otherwise young, healthy people very, very sick. I want them to know, this is no flu.

Granted, this was from the first wave (i.e. SARS-CoV-2 classic, not a later variant), but the point still stands. The consequences of catching Covid-19 might've been quite varied, ranging from, "kills you stone dead" to, "you have to be tested to even find out you have it" (which is about as varied as a disease's effects can be, come to think about it). And your chances of actually dying might've been quite low. But in between there was this delightful world of intermediate effects, as the virus wrought havoc with the lungs and whatever other internal organs it took a fancy to. 33 is younger than I was at the time, and much fitter as well, and yet afterwards this person couldn't walk a few blocks without stopping to catch their breath? Christ that's bleak.

That meant even if it didn't take your life, the virus could still take away your life. Were you harbouring ambitions to be the first to summit Muchu Chhish? Too bad, now you can't reach the second storey without a run-up. Dream of selling out the Opera House, of belting out Musetta's Waltz while adoring fans toss roses on the stage? A dream it will stay, now the virus has reduced the bottom half of your lungs to scar tissue.

There are other things in that story that weren't happening by the tail end of 2021, of course. Your doctor smiling, for one thing. Can we even imagine how colossally overworked our healthcare professionals were during these years? One survey of 1,200 Australian healthcare workers found that 70 percent of them were showing at least some signs of PTSD. For context, the PTSD rate among members of the Australian armed forces – at a time when we'd only just pulled out of Afghanistan – was 8.3 percent. 

But there was light at the end of the tunnel. By December 2020, the vaccines were starting to arrive.

The Vaccine Strollout
Donnie from Queens did precisely one good thing¹ during his stint as U.S. President: On 6 March 2020, he signed a bill from Congress authorising $8.3 billion in covid relief, including $3 billion in funding for vaccine development. The U.S. government's offer to the pharmaceutical industry was basically, "Don't worry how much it costs, we'll cover it. Just make us a vaccine already."

(Source.)

So they did, in an astonishingly short time. Business as usual would've seen a new vaccine put through the FDA's test and approval process in five to ten years: Since this was an emergency, they got it done in just 18 months. This was the culmination of our strategy against the virus. All the rest of it – the lockdowns, the quarantines, the isolation periods, the contact tracing – all of it had been a means of buying enough time for the pharma giants to get a vaccine together. Truly our cup runneth over, then, when they came back not with one, but with three.

The first was from Pfizer (brand name "Comirnaty"), which was given approval for emergency use in December 2020. The same was given to Moderna ("Spikevax" – Moderna has a better marketing department than Pfizer, apparently) only a week later. That is not to be confused with full FDA approval, which declared a vaccine safe for general use, instead of just being less dangerous than the virus for those in the high-risk categories: That came for the Pfizer vaccine nine months later, in August 2021, while Moderna's likewise followed in January 2022. Of the two, Moderna's was arguably better simply because it could be stored at -20 degrees Celcius, which is just about doable for a normal commercial freezer. Pfizer's needed to be stored below -70, which necessitated a big, sexy cryo unit.

Which you can buy on eBay, I just discovered (Source).

The third option was AstraZeneca ("Covishield"), a Swedo-British company² working with the labs at Oxford University. Theirs was also storable in normal freezers, but it had other issues and, well, guess which one Australia was most reliant on?

The Australian government's vaccine rollout was derided as a stuff-up, with ACTU secretary Sally McManus famously Tweeting, "We don’t have a vaccine rollout, we have a vaccine strollout" (which became the National Dictionary Centre's Word of the Year). But I can't picture it ever being anything else, to be honest. You can criticise the pigs in Parliament for buying limited quantities of mostly AstraZeneca, instead of covering their bases with Pfizer and Moderna as well, but I don't know how available those actually were at the time. As I said, full approval was still months away, so at its core this was a supply problem: There was an immediate worldwide demand for billions of doses, and billions of a finely-crafted manufactured good, requiring delicate machinery and highly-trained personnel to make, were never going to appear on your doorstep overnight. So as soon as the vaccines were announced, the boss hogs placed an initial order for 25 million doses, and wisely acquired a licence for medical firm CSL to manufacture more of them locally – supply chain disruptions were another signature phenomenon of covid. Outsourcing, offshoring and just-in-time delivery seem wonderfully efficient until Head Office realises, too late, that the more slack they take out of the system, the less spare capacity there is to compensate when things go wrong. And things will always go wrong. Like, for example, when your most available vaccine turns out to cause blood clots.

After tens of millions of AstraZeneca doses had been administered in the U.K. and Europe, it was found roughly 1 in 100,000 people would suffer a thrombotic complication. That is, they'd develop a blood clot in the brain, with a small subset of those people actually dying from it. By mid-March AstraZeneca vaccinations had been suspended as too risky, and ultimately, out of 13 million doses administered in Australia, there were 173 cases of clotting and eight deaths – not many in an absolute sense, especially when it was still safer than just barebacking the virus (which could also cause blood clots, by the by), but it still too many for something that was supposed to save your life. I was glad I didn't have to take it.

It wasn't until the Delta wave that vaccinations picked up, as people started to see the jab as their "path to normality". I signed up and got my initial vax (Pfizer) in September and October 2021, both times administered by RAN personnel in their smart new Multi-Cam uniforms. Yet again I was one of the lucky ones: Some people reported side effects like bad headaches, general aches and pains, fever, fatigue and nausea, and that's before mentioning more exotic stuff like swelling and skin reactions around the site of the injection. But me? I just spent a day or two feeling like I'd been punched in the arm. Easy.

As a side note, there were other vaccines too. The Russians had a brew of their own called Sputnik V, and apparently it was pretty good, but nobody was really lining up to take it. Cynicism worked both ways, it seems: If the Russian people didn't believe Putin's line that everything was fine and the situation was under control, then they really didn't believe it when the Kremlin said the vaccine was safe and effective. Then there was China's CoronaVac, developed by Sinovac, which was pretty substandard all told (though still safer than the virus). Unlike the mRNA-based approach of the others, Sinovac had gone for a straight injection of un-activated covid particles, but a Mexican study found it was one of the least effective options out there, well behind Moderna and Pfizer (gold and silver, respectively. Surprisingly, Sputnik got the bronze, coming in ahead of AstraZeneca).

Pictured: Science (Source).

Anyway, Moderna boosters followed for me in August 2022. By then they were needed, because – what else? – it had all gone to hell in a handbasket yet again.

Phase IV: Omicron
If you only look at the gross numbers, then Omicron was the worst variant of Covid-19. What's crazy is that I bet you won't find a single person who remembers it that way. Omicron was first detected in Botswana in November 2021, and genetic analysis suggests it hadn't branched off from any of the previous variants, but came direct from the wild strain (like Stevie Nicks, it had gone its own way). One theory is that it had swapped some of its genetic code with another coronavirus, like one responsible for the flu, or had crossed over to infect mice and then jumped the species barrier back to humans. It's also speculated that it might've spent time gestating in a host who also happened to have HIV, as this would explain why it had been left alone long enough to become so mutated (no immune system to fight it, but the patient receiving enough medical care to survive).

However it came about, the defining feature of Omicron was a heavily mutated spike protein compared to the original strain. Spike proteins were the keys that unlocked your cells, and those of the Omicron strain were, a) Sturdier and less prone to breaking off accidentally, and b) Only needed to touch one kind of protein on the outer wall of your cells to activate. Most Covid strains needed to touch two distinct proteins (called ACE2 and TMPRSS2, pronounced "Tempress-2") to activate and do its thing. Omicron only needed ACE2.

(Source).

Naturally that made Omicron fantastically infectious, even by the standards of the manic Delta variant, but mercifully it also meant Omicron tended to target your upper airways rather than the TMPRSS2-rich lungs. And unlike Delta, which had proved very good at suppressing the body's immune response, Omicron activated the immune system all on its own – it was like a burgler who broke into your house, and then called the cops on itself. These two facts made Omicron much less dangerous to humans than Delta had been, and that, ironically, made it very bad news for hospital staff.

Statistically, if you have a disease that's only a tenth as dangerous as its predecessor, but spreads ten times faster, you're only breaking even: Just as many ICUs will be occupied as before, so nothing really has changed. But in reality, due to bugs in the human OS, I think you actually go backwards. The paradox of healthcare is that a less dangerous disease can actually be more hazardous overall, because all the average Baz 'n' Shaz on the street are going to hear is, "The disease is much less dangerous to you, personally." That means they're going to drop all the precautions and let the disease spread faster than ever. Remember that we were now two years into the apocalypse and people were utterly sick of it: Sick of the lockdowns, sick of masking, sick of the hand sanitiser, sick of QR-coding in and out of everywhere we went. Society badly wanted it just to be over, so collectively, by osmosis, without anyone making any kind of official announcement, they just sort of decided it was.


Put it all together, and you've got the reason Omicron probably holds a Guinness World Record for being the fastest-spreading disease in all of human history. It's also why, if you look at Worldometer today, it looks like the pandemic only starts in December 2021. Australia got its first two Omicron cases on 27 November, both people who were fully-vaxxed and had flown in from southern Africa, then entered isolation periods as required. Shortly thereafter, on 29 November, another case turned up in Darwin on a repatriation flight. After that, case numbers took off into the stratosphere and never looked back. At the start of October that year, we had roughly 107,000 cases. By November, it was 168,000. Then December hit and suddenly it was 209,000, then by New Year's Day it was past 419,000. By February the caseload had hit 2.5 million, at which point why even bother counting anymore? A lot of people misspelled it "Omnicron", but I don't think they're actually too far wrong: Like the Almighty, Omicron was invisible and everywhere at once.

And it killed a shitload of people. Remember those gross numbers I was talking about? Here they are, total deaths by variant, as of January 2024:

  • First & Second Waves (wild strain): 914
  • Third Wave (Delta): 1,396
  • Fourth Wave (Omicron): 10,228

The months with the highest fatality counts were January (1,828), July (1,759) and August (1,444), and you'll note that each of these months exceeded the 1,396 deaths recorded during the entire Delta wave. And we're supposed to remember Omicron as the mild variant? We were fortunate that by January, roughly 80 percent of Australia was doubled-vaxxed, with a small minority boosted as well. I shudder to think what Omicron might've done in an unvaccinated population.

And it was at this point, Small Dude, in late March 2022, that you finally caught it. Your Dad was feeling under the weather, so he pulled out a RAT test, and it came up positive. I think you were home with him at the time, so as a precaution he tested you too and, yep, positive as well. When I got the news, I held my breath and waited. Your Dad reported horrible sweats through the night, fevers, headaches and joint pain – but thankfully, nothing worse. You both pulled through, apparently unscathed. Yet again, we'd got off lightly.

Meanwhile...
The WHO officially declared Covid-19 no longer a pandemic on 5 May 2023, but the date I'd call the end is 24 February 2022. Not because the dying had stopped (it hadn't), but because that was the day Putin launched his ill-fated invasion of Ukraine³ and, at long last, the pandemic ceased to be front-page news. Pandemics end when people want to move on, not when the disease itself moves on – H1N1 influenza is still with us, after all, a century and counting after the Spanish Flu supposedly ended.

The other rival for the headlines was Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha'apai, a volcanic island in Tonga that went Krakatoa on 15 February 2022. The shockwave was heard as far away as Canada, and my favourite video came from a guy on an island 73km away, who filmed the plume as it rose into the sky (blue with distance and impossibly tall), then also his barometer readings, as you could see the pressure drop ahead of each shockwave. So, you know what that means...

And then, of course, there was the rain. I said in Part 2 that Dubbo got over 900 millimetres of rain in 2021: In 2022, we broke 950. January set the tone yet again, Poppy recalling that it ruined the harvest that year. They were already starting late each day to give the Sun time to toast the dew out of the heads, and finishing early as the next evening's dewfall made the grain sticky and impossible to thresh. Then the boss came to them grim-faced and said, "Step it up please, lads. I've just seen the weather forecast." By the end of January – a month that's supposed to see around 50 mils of rain total – we'd already got 130. And that was just Mother Nature clearing her throat.

I had a dog, and his name was BINGO.

It was quite something to see the graph on Weatherzone fill up month by month. Virtually every month in 2022 it seemed we either got precisely our average quota of rainfall, or we got that average multiplied by three or four. Sadly I didn't think to screenshot that Weatherzone graph before it was gone, so I've been forced to recreate it in Open Office:


April was the worst, with traffic diverted every which way as the Serisier bridge closed, the water in serious danger of submerging it and leaving the L.H. Ford the only game in town. At one point the floodwater overtopped the sewage treatment works, forcing the city to issue a boil-water alert. Another time it wasn't raining here, but they still had to issue a flood warning because a system was still chucking it down in the Burrendong catchment area, forcing them to raise the sluice gates and release a few megalitres to avert catastrophe. The funniest story was the pro reptile handlers, who were called out to wrangle brown snakes washed out of their holes by the rising waters, snakes they described as, "Cold, tired and cranky."

The grand finale to the whole three-year shitshow came with the month of October, which was like April all over again. The rain roared down like a solid mass. Once again the floodwaters drowned the car parks behind Macquarie Street, and I got one of my favourite photographs ever, of what looks like a bucolic sunset over a lake, but was actually a turf farm.

Which is too good a shot to just give away here, so have this one instead (own work).

And then, at long last, Dame Nature turned off the taps, and the carnival of horrors finally stopped.

So what did we learn from this trauma conga line?
Honestly, not much. It'd been a bruising three years, but most people seem to've simply dropped the whole period down the memory hole and moved on. They can do that, you know. They spare themselves the energy that might be wasted on deep self-reflection and personal growth by just sort of dismissing what they don't want to know, then carrying on the same anyway. Hearts and minds like an Etch A Sketch, basically. Not a bad way to be, wish I could do it.

But if I had to sum up, I'd say Australia did okay with the pandemic. Maybe not brilliantly, but okay, though I had unusually low expectations. A couple of years before it all started, I happened across a tidbit from the First World War. The planners in London had realised any major war would be a financial disaster, so they reasoned, why not use that financial disaster to bring about victory all the sooner? So they had provisions in place in the event of war, such as banning all coal exports to the Netherlands (which was tantamount to putting coal on the Kaiser's doorstep, you see, and the whole point was to strangle the German economy). But then the war came, and the one-percenters started bleating about how much money they were losing. The war had started in August, so by September they were softening their pre-war plans, and by October they'd abandoned them altogether. Given the choice of pounds sterling or lives, Westminster preferred to spend millions of lives.

So I was genuinely a bit shocked that the Australian government (a Coalition government, even) bit the bullet and paid people to stay home. I was quietly impressed when they kept it up, too, instead of getting bored and dropping the whole programme once the first wave abated, like the U.S. did. When the vaccines came along there was no talk of lotteries of meal vouchers or any such rubbish to coerce the "vaccine reluctant" to get the jab, they simply made proof of vaccination mandatory to get into things (anti-vaxxers thought their throats had been cut, but what of it? They'd been waiting their whole lives for the government to play the red team in their self-aggrandising fantasies, it would've been rude to end their LARP session too soon). At the end of the day, in despite of the Libertarian brain rot affecting every political establishment these days, our leaders revealed they're not true believers, they still kowtow to reality. When the test came they put the ideology aside and did what needed to be done, however imperfectly, and that's a passing grade as far as I'm concerned.

Of course, ScoMo and his cronies got the boot at the next election, but he lost that one in 2019, not 2020.

All that said, if I can pass on two lessons I got out of it, the first is that you shouldn't overestimate how prepared our leaders really are. How much warning did we have that something like this could happen? Several smaller pandemics in the early 21st Century, Bill Gates doing his best Cassandra routine trying to warn us, a brilliant little movie called Contagion that I didn't even watch until it was too late... It wasn't impossible to predict that something like this could come along and turn the world upside-down. So what did we have in place ready to deal with it? Basically, just Centrelink and our healthcare system, the very things both parties had been working like buzzsaws to undermine for the previous forty years. Now extrapolate that forwards into our Climate Change-dominated future and you might begin to lose sleep. Have your tunnels dug and ready, is what I'm saying.

Also, this:


¹ Naturally, then, that's the one thing his cult disowns him for.

² What if a Swedish company was British?

³ Slava Ukraini.